An Election Up for Grabs

September, 2021

By: Prospectus Associates 

We are just over the half-way point in election 2021. So far, it’s been an unpredictable, volatile campaign.

After weeks of campaigning, Canadians are still angry that they’re having an election; to their mind, politicians shouldn’t be out on the hustings in the middle of a pandemic. They’re directing their unhappiness at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and that’s led to an increase in the Conservatives’ popular support. But the Conservatives aren’t breaking away from the pack, either. The two main parties are essentially neck-and-neck in the national polls. At this point in the campaign, Election 2021 remains anyone’s game.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Opposition leaders have just weeks to close the deal and convince Canadians that they’re the best person to the lead the country. Out of these remaining weeks, the next one is possibly the most crucial for all parties. The first French debate happened on TVA. Because of the relatively short campaign, the leaders ‘debates will be even more important than usual. Canadians will get their first real look at the leaders in action, and they can begin to judge for themselves who would make the best Prime Minister.

Team Trudeau is hoping that this will be the week they turn things around and course-correct towards a majority. The Liberals released their platform earlier this week. It had two main themes. First, it announced a number of popular policies and benefits aimed at helping everyday Canadians. Chief among them were ambitious proposals related to housing and childcare—two huge cost drivers for young families in the Greater Toronto Area, Vancouver, and other urban centers. The Liberals also used their platform to contrast themselves with the Conservatives, repeatedly attacking O’Toole by saying that he’ll roll back abortion access and handgun bans as well as implement private healthcare across the country. It’s clear that Trudeau is spoiling for a fight with O’Toole. He thinks he can best the Conservative leader in an exchange of ideas and, when it comes down to it, Canadians will support the types of policies and programming the Liberals are offering the electorate. With Liberals advancing against the Conservatives, the pressure is on Erin O’Toole to standup to Trudeau and fight back. He must have credible answers to Trudeau’s questions about healthcare and abortion, and he has to articulate how his recovery plan is better than Trudeau’s and why Canadians can trust him to lead the country and renew our shared prosperity. He’s auditioning for the most important job in the country and, like any job interview, he will have to overcome many tests and trials, from the leaders debates to media interviews and so on. He’ll need to be at the top of his game in the weeks to come. If he can execute, O’Toole has a path to victory ahead of him. It’s in his hands. Can take the chance and win? Or will Trudeau rise up and snatch success from O’Toole and secure another minority or majority? The next week will be crucial to answering these questions

Debate Strategy and Outcomes

TVA hosted the first French leaders debate. It went reasonably well for all the leaders. In the post-debate panel, two out of the three commentators said Justin Trudeau won the debate. The Prime Minister was energetic and punchy, passionately defending his record, from the purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline to his handling of sexual assault allegations in the Canadian Armed Forces. Trudeau also had his best attempt at explaining why he called the election. He said that Canada is close to finishing the fight against the pandemic and now is the time to decide how we move forward and recover from its effects. Making this decision now is essential; if Canada waits six months to a year, it will be too late. Trudeau’s strong performance at the debates means Quebec will likely become a two-way race between the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet was more relaxed than Trudeau, at times coming across as paternal and arrogant. But his natural advantage in French made up for his personal defaults, and he too had a strong debate. The Bloc are quietly positioning themselves as an essential power broker in a potential minority government. They can use that leverage to best represent Quebec’s interests in Parliament. Conservative leader Erin O’Toole also had a relatively good night. He was stiff and wooden, often repeating the same lines (J’ai un plan…) over and over. But he was also cool and calm under pressure. A Toronto-born, Anglophone will always be at a natural disadvantage in French debates, and O’Toole likely exceeded the low expectations of him. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh had the worst night of all the leaders. He struggled in French and gave Quebecers no reason to vote for him in the 2021 election.

What the Numbers Tell Us

This past week the Conservatives continued their favorable trajectory, increasing their support in virtually all regions (Quebec, B.C., the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada). The notable exception is Ontario, where they went down one point. In truth, however, the Conservatives’ rise was not that much. A point here or there won’t make much of a difference in most individual ridings. The key is the trend. If the Conservatives continue this slow and steady rise over the next few weeks, they could find themselves in a very good position on election day. O’Toole’s French debate performance won’t likely win him many new fans in Quebec, but it didn’t torpedo his campaign, either (like the TVA debates did to Andrew Scheer in 2019). The Conservatives can hope to hold their foothold in and around the Quebec City region. The most likely path to victory for the Tories remains growing in Atlantic Canada and Quebec by a few seats each, winning more suburban and exurban seats in Ontario, sweeping the Prairies, and securing wins in Interior B.C. and the parts of the Lower Mainland that typically vote Conservative (White Rock, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Langley, etc.).

The Liberals have to be worried about their relative decline. They’re still very much in the fight and they can resurrect their campaign. They maintain strong leads in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. But three weeks into election 2021 they haven’t stopped the bleeding yet. They’re trailing the Conservatives and NDP in B.C. and their lead in Ontario has narrowed to a single point. They have to hope that Trudeau’s debate performances will give them more energy in Quebec, providing them with a beachhead that will allow them to mount a reinvigorated battle in Ontario and elsewhere. The Liberals’ platform is very much focused on voters in the 905 and regions like it, proposing policies that should help citizens in the GTA with the cost of living. A Trudeau majority runs through the suburbs of Ontario cities, from London to Hamilton and Niagara Falls. Trudeau will now have to focus on getting out to those regions and highlighting his policies. As part of his pitch, he’ll surely warn that Conservative government would take away the federal-provincial daycare agreements and allow the overheated housing markets to run their course—making it impossible for many young and new Canadians to purchase their first home. He’ll also remind urbanites about how the Conservatives caucus wants to restrict access to abortions and make it easier to buy handguns. The Liberals have been focusing their attacks on the Conservatives so far, but the NDP part of the ‘squeeze play’ should come soon. In addition to their hits against the Conservatives, Liberals will warn centre-left voters that a vote for the NDP will only mean more power for O’Toole and the Conservatives. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has to be ready to counter these attacks. Despite some campaign gaffes, Singh should be happy with his level of popular support. It remains at 20 points nationally, and they are in second place in British Columbia.

The debates will be Green leader Annamie Paul’s last and best chance to improve her party’s standings and save the furniture. If she performs well, she can hope to keep the party’s two seats on Vancouver Island.