Surprising Start to Election 2021

August 27, 2021

By: Prospectus Associates 

With nearly two weeks of Election 2021 in the books, the campaign has gone differently than most observers expected, with the Liberals and Conservatives trending in different directions.

Team Trudeau called this election. They knew exactly when it was going to happen and the types of questions they would likely face when they dropped the writ. Justin Trudeau is a battle-hardened politician, one who has successfully fought and won two national campaigns. Out of all the political parties, the Liberals should have been the most prepared; the one that could come out of the gate with a strong start and momentum. Instead, the Liberals appeared unready and lethargic. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was unable to articulate a convincing reason why he called an election, limply saying that Canadians should have a say in how we finish the fight against COVID-19. The argument was too broad and general, especially since the Trudeau government has spent hundreds of billions of dollars over the course of the pandemic with only cursory Parliamentary review.

When the campaign did start, the Liberals did their best to define Erin O'Toole before the Conservative leader could make his own case. The Liberals tried to define three wedge issues: vaccine mandates, abortion and two-tier health care. These types of attacks were effective against Andrew Scheer, the former Conservative party leader and O'Toole's predecessor. Canadians concerned about black face and other Liberal scandals were not convinced that Scheer was a viable alternative. He won the popular vote but Trudeau hung on to a workable minority.

Team Trudeau has tried the same methods in 2021, but, so far, they haven't worked. Indeed, Twitter labelled one of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's tweets as misinformation—an embarrassing gaffe for the Liberals, a party that claims to do politics differently and positions itself as the principled, moral actor on many issues.

In contrast, the Conservative Party and leader Erin O'Toole have had a good two weeks.

They released their campaign platform and TV ads early, giving them positive momentum. O'Toole appears confident and positive on the campaign trail. Observers had different expectations for O'Toole, thinking he might stumble at the start of the campaign. In the runup to the election it is always difficult for the Opposition to gain media attention. And when they did, they seemed to lack a consistent message or focus. The media reported that O'Toole faced dissent from caucus and party members. But that's the past. O'Toole has surprised many doubters and had a good start to Election 2021.

However, O'Toole and the Conservatives cannot be too excited just yet. His positive image is working for him right now. But confidence can easily tip over into arrogance and self-satisfaction. O'Toole has to stay in control, cool, and calm.

There's also a lot of campaign time left to fill, with four weeks remaining until Election Day.  That leaves plenty of opportunities for Conservative candidates to make mistakes and say impolite things about vaccines, abortion, and so on. Moreover, with his campaign platform already announced, how will O'Toole keep up his momentum over the next month? How will he keep Conservative voters interested enough to go out and vote on September 20?

For these reasons and more, the Liberals aren't panicking yet.  

It's still summertime and many Canadians remain at the cottage, unperturbed by politics. The broader electorate will only tune into the Election 2021 after Labour Day or the leaders' debates. (There will be the English debate on September 9.) 

The Liberal campaign has been distracted by the daily news reports from Afghanistan and the government’s response to the crisis. This culminated in the comments from one Liberal minister where she called the Taliban “our brothers." The last few days the Liberals have tried to “change the channel” announcing ambitious, popular policy that should increase seniors' income and make houses more affordable for Canadians.

Love him or hate him, there's no denying Justin Trudeau is a talented politician. Over the past six years, he's overcome multiple challenges, from black face to WE. He can rise above two bumpy weeks. The media will now begin to turn the spotlight on O'Toole. The Liberals will ask Canadians if they are really ready for a return to the legacy of Stephen Harper.

 There's still time for the Liberals to change the narrative and win another election. But they must stop their slide soon.

Cross Ideology Vote Shopping

Early in election 2021, the Conservatives and Liberals are pitching policy ideas that appeal to constituencies outside their political base.

The Conservatives, for example, have introduced a series of nominally worker or union friendly proposals. They have talked about setting aside board positions for union representatives at major federally regulated institutions. They've also said they will introduce legislation that will put pensioners ahead of other creditors in corporate bankruptcy proceedings, meaning retired workers may have a better chance of receiving their whole pensions. The Conservatives have traditionally put the interests of corporate Canada ahead of unions, and they've promoted more laissez faire, pro-market policies. O'Toole's new ideas show that they're making some effort to chase union votes. Their internal polling shows that these types of voters are available to them, and it's worth the effort.

Similarly, the Liberals and Justin Trudeau are trying their own set of populist pledges. Justin Trudeau announced that if his government is re-elected, Canada's largest banks and insurance companies will have to pay increased corporate taxes. The Liberals are traditionally the centrist party in Canadian politics, leaving the bank bashing to the NDP. That Trudeau is changing tack once again shows that Canadian political parties are starting to shop for votes across their political bases. They recognize that this type of populist political rhetoric is popular across ideologies, and it could help them win more votes. 

What the Numbers Tell Us

The horse race has tightened considerably since last week. The Liberals and Conservatives are now tied in national polling. The Conservatives have seen significant growth in Ontario, while the NDP have made gains in the Prairies and B.C. As the Opposition parties support has increased, the incumbent Liberals have faltered. They're trending down in B.C. and Ontario.

The Liberals decrease in popular support was to be expected. The incumbent party usually drops a few points at the outset of an election and that's what has happened to the Liberals in 2021.

But the slippage happened faster than many expected, and it's more dramatic than in the past.

The Liberals will have to do everything in their power to ensure that this trend is stopped. Events appear to be conspiring against them, with devastating fires in B.C. hurting them in that province and the debacle in Afghanistan denying them campaign airtime. It's hard for Trudeau to talk about a progressive future when he's fighting literal fires at home and a figurative one in the Middle East. Trudeau must break the early malaise of his campaign and get back to his strengths.     

On the positive side for the Liberals, they're maintaining their strong leads in Atlantic Canada and Quebec. However, the Liberals already hold many of the winnable seats in Quebec.

Right now it shows that they won’t have enough seats to secure another majority government.

The election of a Progressive Conservative government in Nova Scotia could also boost the federal Tories popularity in Atlantic Canada. If the Conservatives keep trending in the right direction, they will hold onto their four seats in the region and possibly win some more in Prince Edward Island and some rural regions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. That's a very different picture of what many expected only a few weeks ago, when pundits predicted a clean sweep of Atlantic Canada for the Liberals.

But, once again, the Conservatives shouldn't get too excited just yet. They're still a far way away from even being in minority government territory. Remember that Andrew Scheer won the popular vote in the 2019 (34 percent to the Liberals 33 percent), but Justin Trudeau still won the right to form a strong minority government. The Tories national numbers continue to be inflated by strong popularity in the Prairies, especially Alberta. Erin O'Toole has to continue to gain popularity in Ontario and Quebec. For the Conservatives to win government they can't just tie the Liberals in Ontario, they must beat them. When Stephen Harper formed a majority government in 2011, he won 73 of the province's 106 seats. O'Toole represents a riding in the exurbs of Toronto and his father was a long-time provincial politician. The Tories are hoping that Erin O'Toole's Ontario roots can help replicate some of Harper's success.

And if their numbers continue to grow in Ontario, and the debates go well for O’Toole Quebec voters – who are the most strategic in Canada – may decide to jump on the Conservative band wagon – but now we are ahead of ourselves. 

The difference this time in the TVA French debate (Sept. 2) – is that all the other leaders may be attacking Trudeau instead of the Conservative leader. Stay tuned.